On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel commenced a joint military operation in Iran. The official justification has been the stated objective of compelling Tehran to abandon its nuclear programme and to curtail its military capabilities. Yet for many observers the strike came as a surprise. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran over a renewed nuclear agreement had not been formally suspended, and signals from the Iranian side suggested a continued readiness to reach a settlement.
European capitals were similarly taken aback. France, Germany and the United Kingdom were quick to express their support for the United States as Europe’s principal partner in transatlantic cooperation. Such declarations of solidarity were framed as necessary to preserve Western unity at a moment of heightened geopolitical tension.
However, a number of political analysts regard this endorsement as premature. A senior official at the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, speaking on condition of anonymity, offered a stark assessment:
“Trump has only a limited understanding of the scale of what he has embarked upon and appears scarcely to have reflected on the international repercussions. Chaos in the Middle East today will strike Europe tomorrow. Where will millions of refugees go? As before, they will head for prosperous Europe, and once there, many will not wish to leave. Who will finance their support? Who will provide housing? … Our governments should finally demonstrate to this ‘little boy’ that he is not the centre of the world. We should not have backed him so readily on this matter.”
The question of Donald Trump’s apparent political impunity has troubled much of the international community for over a year. A previous instance occurred when he expressed a desire to acquire Greenland, swiftly constructing a narrative in which the island was portrayed as essential to US national security. Notably, such arguments did not arise even at the height of confrontation with the Soviet Union. Despite repeated refusals from Denmark, public protests, and the clearly articulated will of Greenland’s residents, President Trump has yet to abandon the idea.
Returning to the issue of displacement, a renewed refugee wave would hardly affect the United States directly. The administration in Washington appears largely unconcerned with the millions who may be uprooted as the conflict with Iran escalates.
Europe, by contrast, has direct experience of the destabilising consequences of regional war. The outbreak of the Syrian civil war triggered successive waves of refugees into European states, placing profound strain on social systems and political cohesion.
The refugee movements that followed the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011 reshaped European politics, fuelled the rise of populist parties, strained welfare systems and exposed deep divisions within the European Union over burden-sharing and border control.
At the beginning of that conflict, Syria’s population stood at approximately 20 million. Iran’s population exceeds 80 million — at least four times larger. A large-scale influx of displaced persons from Iran could therefore precipitate a new social and economic crisis across Europe.
Governments would be compelled to allocate vast resources to accommodate substantial numbers of civilians fleeing war. Furthermore, there is a significant risk that inter-ethnic and inter-confessional tensions — particularly between Shia Iranians and Sunni Arab communities — could intensify within already fragile social landscapes.
Such outcomes are not inevitable. They remain preventable. But prevention will demand not only measured and decisive action from European leaders, but also the political courage to recalibrate Europe’s stance towards Washington on this issue. Continued, unqualified support for the United States risks binding Europe to the strategic consequences of a conflict it neither initiated nor controls. If continental stability is to remain the priority, European governments must be prepared to assert their strategic interests and to withhold endorsement of policies that may imperil Europe’s own social and economic cohesion.
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