Inflation is expected to marginally decline in August 2025 due to unfavourable base effects, IC Research, the research arm of IC Securities, has revealed.
According to the leading research firm, it anticipates a modest contraction in the Consumer Price Index level for August 2025 to reflect the lower price effect of food crop supply.
However, it added that the likely contraction in the August 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) level will be insufficient to outweigh the 1.6 percentage points contraction posted in August 2024.
This will create an unfavourable base drift with upside risk to the August 2025 annual inflation print.
“Nonetheless, we believe that energy prices will likely stay lower on a year-on-year basis with the cedi gains supporting to dampen the upside risk. Combining the upside and downside arguments, we forecast a 30-basis-point uptick in annual inflation to 12.4% in August 2025 but with a month-on-month projected deflation of 0.5%”.
2025 End-Inflation Forecast
Meanwhile, IC Securities has stated its end-2025 forecast appears more bullish though it is cautious ahead of the fourth quarter utility tariff hike.
“The sharper-than-expected disinflation in July 2025 has markedly improved our updated end-2025 midpoint forecast to 10.5% (versus 11.3% prior)”, it said.
It added “Given the uncertainty around the potential magnitude of hike in utility tariffs in 4Q2025 [quarter 4, 2025] and caution on how the response variables will likely behave, we reiterate our view that there is a strong possibility for end-2025 inflation to hit the mid-9.0% area”.
However, it retained its revised forecast at 11.3% ±1.0 percentage points but leans toward the lower end of 10.3%, pending the hike in utility tariff.
Ghana’s annual headline CPI inflation declined sharply by 160 basis points to 12.1% in July 2025 compared to our forecast decline to 12.7% (12.4%).
The disinflation trend represents the seventh successive decline in annual inflation with a cumulative drop of 11.7 percentage points in seventh months of 2025 to the lowest level since October 2021.
About the Author
