The government is expected to record a total revenue of GH¢225.9 billion, about 16.0% of Gross Domestic Product in 2025.
This will be slightly below the government’s revised downward target of GH¢226.5 billion.
According to a leading financial and market research firm, IC Research, an expected boost in tax revenue in the 4th quarter of 2025 will partly close the gap observed in nine months of 2025 as year-end seasonality drives imports and consumer spending.
In its assessment of the 2026 Budget, it said, “Our assessment of the 9M2025 [9 months] outturn revealed continued risk of revenue underperformance with a 4.7% (GH¢7.7 billion) shortfall recorded against the period target. However, the authorities exhibited disciplined execution of spending plans by suppressing total expenditure (commitment basis) below the budget by 13.8% (GH¢28.6 billion). This supported a considerable fiscal adjustment, equivalent to 5.5% of GDP in 9M2025 and propelled the primary surplus to 1.6% of GDP [Gross Domestic Product], substantially outpacing the period target surplus of 0.6%”.
It continued that the petroleum and other tax revenue was partly constrained by the stronger cedi, while non-tax revenue outperformed. Total revenue and grants were estimated at GHS154.9bn in nine months of 2025, falling short of the authorities’ target by GH¢7.7 billion (4.7%). “The revenue underperformance reflects a broad-based shortfall across tax revenue lines, with direct taxes (-5.4%) and import duty (-11.9%) posting the widest negative deviation from target”.
“We attribute the weaker-than-expected tax revenue outturn partly to the sharp appreciation of the cedi in 2025, which compressed the cedi-equivalent of FX-linked revenues as well as lingering administrative issues at Ghana’s ports”, it added. However, non-tax revenue (GH¢22.7bn) outperformed the target by 13.0% in nine months of 2025 mainly helped by improved collections by Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs
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