Ghana’s macroeconomic outlook remains broadly favorable, the International Monetary Fund has said.
According to the Fund, although the 2024 growth was stronger than anticipated, the staff lowered its 2025 growth projection to 4.0%. This is on a larger negative fiscal impulse than previously anticipated and a tighter monetary policy.
Growth is however projected to return to its potential rate of about 5.0%. This reflects a higher 2024 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation outturn.
The Fund alluded that the projected return to the BoG’s target band (8±2%) has been delayed to 2026, but inflation is now set to decline to 12% by end-2025— reflecting the impact of monetary and fiscal policy tightening, as well as the appreciation of the cedi.
“Returning to the programmed fiscal consolidation path—including a primary balance surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2025—and completing the debt restructuring would ensure that Ghana’s public debt is on a sustainable trajectory”, the Fund said.
“The CA [Current Account] surplus is projected to increase to 1.8% of GDP in 2025 on high gold prices and to gradually decline over the medium term due to normalising gold exports and remittance flows (the latter expected to remain flat)”, it stressed.
It continued that the 10% U.S.-imposed tariff is not expected to impact Ghana significantly in the short-run, given limited exports to the U.S. (primarily crude oil which is exempt), with Ghana’s other main commodities’ export markets well diversified.
It concluded that net private sector financial outflows are expected to remain elevated while external debt payments are increasing.