Databank Research is predicting a relatively stable cedi in 2026, with year-end depreciation of 7.20% to the US dollar.
This means the cedi will end 2026 trading at GH¢12.85 to one American greenback.
According to its 2026 Economic Outlook, this outlook factors in demand pressures from bulk importers, energy, and Eurobond payments, while assuming no systemic shocks.
“The forecast is anchored on a conservative monthly inflow of approximately GH¢750 million from GOLDBOD, alongside ongoing reforms in the small-scale mining sector”. It highlighted that a steady gold-backed inflows are expected to enable the Bank of Ghana to manage market expectations and effectively smooth currency pressures.
Beyond these domestic drivers, the report said a favourable market sentiment is expected from continued International Monetary Fund and World Bank programme support. “We also observe a gradual decline in global central banks’ reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency, with China leading the shift towards gold holdings amid uncertainties surrounding US policy”.
It continued that this has sparked discussions on reclassifying gold from Tier 1 to High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) status, potentially validating its use as collateral in repo financing. “Although BRICS deliberations on this measure remain tentative, constrained by volatility, custody issues, and trust, its implementation would represent a structural shift in the global financial system”.
Such a change, it stressed, could strengthen gold’s monetary role, reduce US dollar dominance, and, indirectly, support cedi stability by boosting reserve accumulation.
Excluding this low-probability scenario, Databank Research maintained a neutral-to-positive outlook for the cedi, underpinned by tighter foreign exchange regulations and resilient reserve buffers sufficient to absorb moderate demand pressures.
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